September brought a Federal Reserve rate increase, higher long-term Treasury yields, and rising oil prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Most stocks and bonds fell together, an uncommon pairing that gave diversified investors little room to gain ground.

At F3 Capital, we believe market updates are most useful when they are placed in the context of a comprehensive financial plan. Here is a look at the developments that shaped September and the data to watch in October.

How Major Stock Indexes Finished September

Technology carried the month. The Nasdaq 100 rallied on strength in AI and chip stocks, while the S&P 500, the Dow, and shares of smaller companies fell as rising rates hit the rest of the market.

• The S&P 500 slipped 0.45%.
• The Nasdaq 100 rallied 3.23%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.29%.

Economic Growth Was Revised Higher

Second-quarter growth was revised up to a 2.2% annual rate, lifted by stronger consumer spending and business investment, even as borrowing costs and energy prices climbed. That strength supports paychecks and profits, but it also makes inflation harder to tame.

For households building wealth or preparing for retirement in New Hampshire, economic reports are one part of a broader planning picture. Investment management, retirement income planning, and tax-efficient withdrawal strategies should remain connected to individual goals rather than to a single data release.

Diesel Prices Added to Price Pressure

The national average for diesel crossed $6 for the first time in September and, by late September, was up about 70% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began. Attacks on tankers and Russian refineries, along with Moscow's export ban, left refiners unable to keep up.

Because diesel moves nearly every product to market, its cost flows into freight, food, and delivery prices. This makes diesel a broader source of price pressure than gasoline.

The Federal Reserve Raised Its Benchmark Rate

At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point. After this, most policymakers are forecasting another hike in 2026. Even with a softer inflation reading late in the month, the Fed has little reason to ease while prices are still rising too quickly.

Changes in interest rates can affect borrowing costs, portfolio values, and retirement income planning. F3 Capital's fee-based financial planning process considers these moving pieces alongside the full financial picture, including investment accounts, cash flow, taxes, insurance, and long-term goals.

Long-Term Treasury Yields Moved Higher

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007. When yields rise, the value of existing bonds falls, especially for funds holding longer maturities. Over time, higher yields can increase rates on mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing.

For retirees and pre-retirees, interest-rate movements may be relevant to portfolio withdrawal planning and the role of fixed-income investments within a retirement income strategy. The appropriate approach depends on each household's needs, resources, and timeline.

October's Inflation Report Will Be a Key Test

October will reveal whether September's surge in energy prices and bond yields was a passing shock or the start of something more durable. The mid-month consumer price report will be the key test.

A fuel-driven increase might be manageable, but signs that higher costs are spreading into rents, insurance, and other services would strengthen the case for another hike at the Fed's late-October meeting.

As an independent fiduciary financial planning firm in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, F3 Capital keeps a close eye on market and economic developments. We can help clients connect those developments with a personal financial plan through The F3 Way planning process.

If you have questions about how current market conditions relate to your investments, retirement planning, or tax-efficient financial decisions, consult the F3 Capital team for personalized guidance and support.